Bid Smart. Grow Confidently.
Know your real costs before you commit. Win profitable work, plan realistic expansions, and get loans approved with data-backed projections.
The Small Business Reality
Bid Too Low
Win the job, lose money. Costs always seem to run higher than your estimate.
Bid Too High
Lose to competitors. Padding estimates with gut-feel percentages prices you out.
Expansion Gambles
New equipment, new location, new hires - will it actually pay off?
Loan Guesswork
How much to request? Banks ask about contingency. You're guessing.
Know Your Numbers
Enter Your Estimates
For each cost item, provide three numbers: best case, typical case, worst case. You already think about this - now capture it.
See the Real Range
Monte Carlo runs 5,000 scenarios combining all your uncertainties. Get your P50 (likely), P80 (safe), and P90 (very safe) totals.
Decide with Confidence
Set bids, plan budgets, and request loans based on real data - not gut feel.
Three Ways to Use It
Bidding on Work
Know your floor. Set your margin. Win profitable jobs.
The Scenario
You're a contractor bidding on a kitchen renovation. You've estimated costs at $42,000. Your usual approach: add 15% margin and bid $48,300. But is that enough? Too much?
Your Line-Item Estimate
Risk-Adjusted Reality
The Insight
Your $48,300 bid has only a 50% chance of making your target margin. At P80 costs ($49,200), you'd actually lose $900. For 80% confidence of hitting 15% profit, bid $56,600. If competition is fierce, you now know your floor: anything below $49,200 is a likely loss.
Your Bidding Range
Planning an Expansion
New equipment, new location, new service line - will it pay off?
The Scenario
You run a landscaping company and want to add hardscaping services. Equipment, training, and initial marketing will cost "around $35,000" and should bring in "about $60,000" in new revenue the first year. Good investment?
Your Back-of-Napkin
Risk-Adjusted Analysis
The Insight
Your "sure thing" $25K profit is actually a 72% chance of some profit. Realistic expectation is $13,500 year one, not $25,000. And there's a 28% chance you lose money the first year. Still worth doing? Probably - but budget $45K, not $35K, and don't count on that revenue until you see it.
Loan Application
Request the right amount. Justify it with data.
The Scenario
You need financing for a new delivery truck and route expansion. You've budgeted $65,000. Do you request exactly that? Add a buffer? The bank will ask questions.
Your Budget
Risk-Adjusted Request
What to Tell the Bank
"We're requesting $75,000 based on Monte Carlo analysis of our cost estimates." Base budget is $65K, but analysis of 5,000 scenarios shows 80% confidence requires $74,800. We're requesting $75,000 to ensure adequate working capital without over-borrowing. Here's the report.
📋 What Banks Like to See
- Itemized costs with ranges, not single numbers
- Quantified contingency with rationale
- Confidence levels (P50, P80, P90)
- Professional report they can file
It's Simpler Than You Think
You Already Estimate
You think "labor will be $15-20K, probably around $17K." That's your three numbers right there.
Excel Template
Fill in a simple spreadsheet. Optimistic, Most Likely, Pessimistic. Upload it.
30 Seconds
Get your P50, P80, P90 totals. Know your floor. Set your price.
$49/month. One Better Bid Pays for a Year.
Or $300/year - less than a coffee a day.